MAINE, USA — Editor's note: The video attached to this story was published Oct. 14.
Snow: It’s a four-letter word that every Mainer either loves or hates.
This year will be different than the last few winters in Maine when it comes to snow. This will be an El Nino winter, not a La Nina like we’ve seen the last few seasons.
So get your shovels and boots ready, make sure you’ve got the plow guy on speed dial, and settle in for a chat about how much snow I expect to fall for the 2023-2024 winter season in the Pine Tree state.
It’s only fair to start off by comparing the last few winters’ pattern to what will come this year. The last three winters saw cooler water for the equatorial Pacific Ocean and that led to warm temperatures in the south and an active polar jet stream in the north.
The pattern will flip this year as a warm northwest U.S. and plains will be the rule with the polar jet running over New England. Typically, an active southern branch of the jet stream is observed, which I believe will lead to more nor’easters this year and I will get to that later.
The big question that will determine a lot is whether we see a neutral or strong El Nino.
A neutral phase of El Nino would generally mean a cold a snowy pattern for much of Maine.
But a strong El Nino would allow more opportunities for rain along the coast and snow inland.
The No. 1 biggest snowstorm on record for Portland, Maine was 31.9 inches on Feb. 8-9 of 2013 during a neutral ENSO.
The No. 4 biggest snowstorm on record for Portland, Maine was 23.8 inches back on Jan. 27-28 of 2015, also a neutral ENSO.
Annually, Portland sees a little more than 60 inches of snow, with Bangor around 66 inches. Caribou gets nearly 110 inches of snow a year.
Northern Maine saw their snowiest year in 2007 with 197.8 inches during a weak El Nino to La Nina phase.
Seasonal temperature outlooks for the upcoming winter feature a 50-60 percent chance of above-average temperatures for all of Maine according to the National Weather Service.
Typically, Maine winters look for high temperatures to average around 35 degrees in Portland and 31 degrees in Bangor, and averages for both cities in the mid-20s.
The precipitation outlook for December through February shows a clear above-average track of storms in the southeast thanks to the active subtropical jet in a classic El Nino.
The first flakes and 1-inch accumulation typically happen on Nov. 8 in Caribou, Nov. 21 in Bangor, and past Thanksgiving in Portland.
I’m calling for plenty of nor’easters this winter due to the polar jet and subtropical jet phasing together many times.
Looking back at the analog or comparison years to when we had all these ingredients lined up, the 2009-10 winter was best.
Zooming into northern New England, you can see that even with warmer temperatures expected in an El Nino year, several feet of snow still fell.
The one area to keep an eye on is the southern coast which could get robbed from big snows during nor’easters thanks to an onshore wind component from a warmer Gulf of Maine.
The high elevations will still see plenty of snow in the White Mountains of New Hampshire and the western and northern mountains of Maine.
In summary, I do not expect this to be the coldest winter or even a top-five coldest. Last year, northern Maine ended up with more snow than average, and this year, I think they will be closer to the average due to more nor’easters not making it that far north, but several feet will still fall.
The immediate coastline will have a tough time keeping snow on the ground again this year with a warmer-than-average Gulf of Maine.
How much snow do you want to see this time around? Let me know in the comments on my social media.
Follow along for more weather blogs and pizza discussions.