PORTLAND, Maine — Last week's two-part storm wasn't my proudest forecasting moment. Most towns ended up under the snowfall map range.
(Fun Fact: My verification sheet says this is a very unusual miss for me. I tend to be too low on snow forecasts as opposed to too high).
But I believe, much like great quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, good forecasters have a short memory. One interception doesn't affect their confidence on the next play. (To be clear, I'm not comparing myself to Tom Brady. That would be ridiculous. He's 45, and I'm not even 40.)
With that in mind, let's move onto our next snow event, which starts very late tonight and into tomorrow.
At one point, this looked like it could have been a blockbuster. But by last Friday it was becoming clear it had lost its coastal low support and was going to be more middling.
That matters because Maine no longer gets the big juice from that low. Instead we are going to rely on the upper-level low to the northwest.
As we head through the morning and midday, the upper-level low starts to fill in the moisture shield and most of us go over to light to moderate snow.
Surface temperatures in places like Portland will be pretty borderline at this time, so I think accumulation will be only marginally efficient. Inland things will stack up a bit faster with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Snow will continue through the evening, making the evening commute a little dicey. Certainly not impassable but definitely snow covered.
This system loses its upper-level support late tonight and shuts down on Wednesday morning.
When all is said and done, I think the opening bid map put together by Jason and then touched up by Todd still makes sense.
There's a light mix of rain and snow Thursday that could add another 1-3 inches away from southern coastal Maine. But that's boring.
Friday night into Saturday looks MUCH more promising.
That's a more legit nor'easter, with a nice blocking high to the north too. Now it's true that sometimes these five-day-out snowstorms are a bit like me -- look good from a distance but don't hold up as you get closer -- but something about the setup of this one has my weather weenie senses tingling.
I'll keep you updated.
Carson