MAINE, USA — An extended stretch of Wintry weather will grasp us this week. It will be abnormally cold and we'll see a couple of snow chances too. Troughing in the East is still the dominant upper level weather feature over the lower 48. This allows cold air to drain south into New England. It also promotes coastal storm development off the Mid-Atlantic. There will be two that form in precarious spots, both suggesting snow potential for us here in Maine. The first chance is this afternoon. The storm will be pretty far out to sea. There won't be more than a brushing of snow this afternoon. Highest chance to get some accumulation from it will be over southern and coastal areas. But even in those towns, there won't be more than an inch.
As the snow ends and storm departs this evening, cold air will surge in. This is a blast of Arctic air and our temps will struggle for the rest of the week. There won't be any cold records set, but the numbers will bottom out in the single digits Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
The second snow chance comes Thursday. The set-up is pretty sweet. An area of high pressure will be anchored to our north supplying fresh Arctic air into a blossoming Ocean low off the East Coast. The low will be strong and loaded with moisture, offering big snow potential.
The question mark, at this point, isn't with the moisture or the cold air source but with the track. There may be enough "noise" in the mid-levels to prohibit big phasing and a negatively tilted short-wave necessary for a big snow hit here in New England. A flatter track is on the table and may be the preferred outcome at this point. That doesn't mean it's going to be a miss.
Snow is likely, and it still may be several inches. But the percentages for a whopper remain relatively low at this point.
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