MAINE, USA — It's not too often that the biggest weather models have significant differences when you're 36 to 48 hours out from a storm, but that's the game we're playing with this one.
On the bright side, imperfect weather models are my job security. I'm pretty confident that the majority of Maine will see fairly significant snow on Saturday.
No matter where you live in Maine, it's time to start snow preps. Wind gusts will be pretty strong, especially at the coastline, so have a plan in case you lose power.
On the bright side, the high tide will not coincide with the strongest wind gusts. That means the coastal flood risk is a little lower, though some minor beach erosion and splash-over still looks likely.
Good news! I have some new info to share as the picture becomes clearer.
What we know
There is a large, strong storm system that will form off of the Carolina coastline on Friday.
It will move north, impacting New England early Saturday and lasting through the day.
The cold air this storm has to work with will favor light, fluffy snow. There are increasing signals that point to a foot or more of fluff, especially Downeast.
Wind gusts will be strong, coming out of the northeast. Isolated power outages are possible.
Coastal flooding is less of a concern, since high tide does not coincide with the strongest wind gusts.
What we don't know
The exact track of this storm is still being determined. Some shifts in snowfall forecasts are possible, though, at this point, I expect those shifts to be fairly small.
While it looks most likely that the storm will not start until early Saturday, the specific start times are not quite figured out yet. We are becoming more confident that most of the snow will be wrapped up by Sunday morning.
Blizzard conditions are independent of snowfall totals, but fluffy snow and strong wind gusts could certainly lead to blowing snow. For now, to be determined, but I'd watch for blizzard conditions Downeast.
The issue with this forecast has always been the "wobble" factor in the storm track. A slight shift west or east means the heavy snow band will shift, which is what makes the forecast challenging.
It also will impact start and end times, so expect that graphic to make its return on Friday once the storm finally forms.
There have been some shifts here, most notably breaking up the original 10-20" range.
As models and current observations continue to hint at an eastern storm track, it makes the most sense to shift the bullseye of the highest totals to areas east of the Penobscot River.
Still, southwestern Maine is in the 8-12" range. Expect around a foot near Bangor, if not a little more.
Western Maine and the mountains will end up with 4-8" of fluff.
The strongest gusts will also be Downeast and along the Midcoast, where gusts could reach or exceed 45 mph. The entire coast could see wind gusts near 40 mph, though.
Inland areas will still be breezy, but not as gusty as the coast. Expect gusts in the 20-35 mph range.
Isolated power issues are possible, but the bigger story will be blowing snow.
Here's one last "one-stop-shop" for storm info. While this is a good outline, expect even more specifics on Friday.
In case you're keeping track at home, we have been running below average for snow this season.
Portland and Bangor are both roughly half of where they normally would be, and this storm will help bring seasonal totals close to normal.
Make sure you follow our whole team (Todd, Keith, and Jess) on social media for updates before then.
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