PORTLAND, Maine — Since 1818, the Farmers’ Almanac has been using a time-tested weather formula to look well into the future and predict where flakes will fly across the nation. Let’s look at the latest forecast and break down the highlights for the upcoming winter, described as “The Brrr is back!”
But first, here is a recap of last year in Maine. Caribou finished the season with more than 127 inches of the white stuff, so the plows were quite busy. Bangor came in at an above-average season with more than 71 inches of snowfall. Portland was close to the average with more than 56 inches of heavy, wet snow.
A wide look at the Farmers’ Almanac for the upcoming winter features El Nino making an appearance for the first time in three years. That signals for a busy subtropical jet stream bringing in Pacific moisture to the southern tier of the U.S. However, the polar jet could meet up with the subtropical jet stream along the East Coast towards the end of winter, with nor’easter potential looking good. Let’s discuss.
The weather lore for December reads, “The nearer the new Moon to Christmas Day, the harder the winter.”
In about a month, we will see if the stars align for big snow, but for now let’s break down the forecast.
Simply put, El Nino is the warming of the waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The warm ocean and lift create thunderstorms that reverse the trade winds and send moisture into the atmosphere towards the U.S.
The Farmers’ Almanac is featuring several “Red Flag Wintry Events” for the second half of winter, should the El Nino weaken slightly.
The second week of January is forecast to see storms on both the east and west coasts. By the time February rolls around, heavy mountain snows are forecast out west. The northeast and New England are in the cards for a snowstorm by the second week of the month, with frigid air to follow. (Do you remember how cold it was last February?)
An East Coast storm is expected for the first week of March, with snow falling as late as the third week of April in New England, too.
This lines up well with the official El Nino forecast that shows a strong El Nino going moderate by the second half of the winter. That could be just enough time to see the polar jet merge with the sub-tropical jet to give big nor’easters for the East Coast.
A strong El Nino for the start of winter doesn’t feature enough cold air to bring big snow to the coastline.
Zooming in on Maine, I expect the storm pattern for November to continue into December, meaning rain along the coast and a bit inland with elevation snows.
But the second half of winter shows both the jet streams come together with enough cold air in place and moisture from the south.
It will only take one or two nor’easters late in the season to bury the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and New England.
The Farmers’ Almanac “zoned forecast” discussion summary for February to April shows a lot of promise if you are a snow-lover.
The expectation is for a Feb. 8-11 coastal storm of 6 or more inches, plus a foot or more inland.
March looks even better, with an early Great Plains Blizzard and an East Coast storm with wind and heavy rain/snow before the 7th.
By the 23rd, southeast severe storms get going with a clash of moisture, warm ai,r and cold air from the jet stream.
One wildcard to watch out for is the clouds blocking the Total Solar Eclipse on April 8 thanks to yet another storm moving into the east.
Oh, and the full moon for December is the day after Christmas, Dec. 26, The “cold moon."
Follow along for more weather blogs and pizza discussion.