PORTLAND, Maine — Christmas is just over three weeks away, and the flakes are beginning to fly across the Pine Tree State. Mother Nature is usually reliable if you are looking for a white Christmas in Maine, especially the farther north you go.
As a matter of fact, there have only been six years where an inch or less of snow has been observed on Christmas Day. Those years were 1957, 1973, 1998, 2001, 2006 and 2010. That equates to a 92 percent probability of a white Christmas in northern Maine.
Probability or opportunity for at least 1 inch of snow on the ground for Christmas Day varies all over the United States. To start, let’s focus on Maine and the current snow depth.
Prior to the Dec. 3-4 snowstorm, snow depth across the Pine Tree State is mainly confined to the western mountains and northern highlands.
Long-range snow forecasting is like a classic game of Plinko, where there are many paths for a forecast to take, and each step depends on the path beforehand. One small deviation could make a big difference down the line (forecast). The closer to the event day, the fewer possible paths, meaning a more accurate forecast.
Let’s look at Bangor so far this season to get an idea what to expect down the road. There hasn’t been much snow for the month (even though that will change soon) and for the season we are below what is typical around 5 inches by now on average.
In Bangor, it’s typically 32 degrees Christmas Day, but in 2020 it was a whopping 61. That’s a lot closer to a typical July 4 than Dec. 25.
Let’s get back to white Christmas. Much of the country south of Chicago has little to no shot to have 1 inch of snow on the ground at that time. You have to get out West to the Rockies or into northern New England for a much higher probability in the 60 percent or higher range.
A closer look at northern New England features around a 50-percent chance along the coast and 75 percent or more inland.
Focusing on Maine you can see a 60-percent or higher chance of a white Christmas statewide from the southern and Down East coasts north.
Are you hoping for a White Christmas this year? Let me know in the comments or on my social media by following along.
Follow along for more weather blogs and pizza discussion.