MAINE, USA — Back again to talk about the aurora!
I wish this was a more fun update, but unfortunately the aurora is not in the cards. If you want a silver lining, at least there wasn't a bright display that was shrouded by clouds!
In all seriousness, forecasting geomagnetic storms is a very difficult task. After the observations Wednesday afternoon did not match the forecast, some modifications were made which ultimately dropped the chances of getting aurora activity here.
There is still a chance that the northernmost sections of Maine could see some lights dancing on the far northern horizon, but it would take a long exposure picture to really be able to enjoy the view.
The forecast information in this article is from the Space Weather Prediction Center, a branch of NOAA.
This image is a bit complicated, so let me explain.
The lines here correlate to storm strength. The line labeled as Kp 7, which goes straight through Maine, is associated with a geomagnetic storm with a magnitude of G3.
The Kp 6 line is associated with a geomagnetic storm with a magnitude of G2.
Those lines are particularly interesting to Maine since they measure where the extent of the aurora is during these different geomagnetic storms. According to the graphic above, the G3 magnitude storm should allow the aurora to be visible for all of Maine and New Hampshire.
Originally, the forecast storm intensity was G3. Now, however, it is G1. The Arctic Circle will get a dazzling display if this forecast verifies. Here? Not so much.
This screenshot is from the Space Weather Prediction Center, which shows a new bulletin released late Thursday morning, explains how the forecast has evolved.
Given the maximum intensity now forecast to only make it to a G1 geomagnetic storm, that takes Maine and New Hampshire out of the running for viewing the northern lights.
It's a shame, too. With the early sunset (around 4 p.m.) and the late moonrise (around 1 a.m.), any spots away from city light pollution would have been perfect to try to catch a glimpse. Maybe there will be another storm that happens later this winter.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I figured its best to get out ahead of this. For some more forecast information, follow me on Twitter, @MikeSliferWX.