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Keith Carson Blog: One fly by complete, one to go

Two storms push within 50 miles of Maine over the course of 2 days. Exciting times here in the nerd world.

This was the regional radar this morning:

This was meteorologists across Maine:

via GIPHY


Close for sure, but never in doubt in my opinion. Despite the coastal brush by this particular storm never had the dynamics of the juice to break the rules of steering flow.

The next close call might be different.

On Saturday afternoon a larger, more potent storm will swing over Cape Cod, MA and take a similar track to today's storm. BUT, since it's a more explosive low I think the northwest precipitation shield will be heavier and more efficient at snowfall accumulation. Take a look at the RPM small scale model radar prediction:

Taken at complete face value that's a 20-25 mile miss to the East. But, I think it's a bad idea to take this storm at face value. I believe the core of the low will intensify in such a way that the northwest edge of snow will creep into Coastal Maine on Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night.

I don't expect this to be a BIG storm, but I do expect some light accumulations:

Is there a chance it wobbles east and we get nada? Sure. But I'm willing to take that chance just to make sure everyone is prepared for at least SOME snow Saturday night.

Other than that the story is the cold:

It doesn't last long, but Sunday and Monday morning will be what I'd call "noticeably chilly."

One last thing, THE national news story over the next 48 hours will be snow in the South. The same storm that should just glance by us, will hit them full on. Let me tell you, 3" of snow in the South is no joke. It could be crippling for 2-3 days.

Mock it all you like, but without road crews to salt and plow, it's the Wild West down there. Think of it this way, we are all good at what we are accustomed to. When it snows Mainers are hardy and life goes on...but what do we do when there's a Tornado Warning? It ain't pretty.

Carson Out.

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