PORTLAND, Maine — We've turned the page on our dry and sunny fall and have stepped right into a much more active pattern. A system over the weekend brought beneficial rainfall, and another on Tuesday is projected to do the same. But all eyes are on the storm around Thanksgiving, and it's a weird one.
We started seeing this storm over a week ago, but the pattern looked less than favorable. Despite this, as time wore on, the threat of this storm remained. At this point, we know it's going to form, it just comes down to where it forms—and where it will travel.
The European model Sunday was more reasonable, with a warmer low farther inland, but Monday it took a 180-turn and projected a large storm moving into Maine Thanksgiving night. The location of this low would give us rain along the immediate coast, and several inches of snow to most areas inland.
The GFS (also known as American) model, however, gives us what amounts to a nothing-burger. Sunday it had, essentially, a Nor'easter with more snow, but Monday has a warm, rain system that misses us completely off the southern coast. With this low position, we would end up with almost no precip at all.
So, guidance for this storm has been all over the place. Regardless of this fact, I think we'll end up seeing something in the middle. I'm skeptical of any run that spits out a storm with too much snow. It isn't impossible, but in November it can be hard to find a source of cold air reliable enough for widespread snowfall outside of the higher elevations and northern Maine. Especially because the ocean temp is still 50 degrees.
In the end, I think we're likely looking at a mostly rain event, with some snow mixing in especially inland, starting late Thursday and continuing into Friday. But there is still a lot of uncertainty here, so it's something the team will be watching closely all week. For now, if you are traveling around Thanksgiving, just be aware that there is a chance for precip at this time.
Have a good holiday!
Meteorologist Dana Osgood (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram)
Meteorologist Todd Gutner - Instagram
