PORTLAND, Maine — Editor's note: The video attached to this story was published May 26, 2023.
The space weather prediction center considers a Kp-index at 5 or greater to be geomagnetic storm. Unfortunately, that is no longer in the forecast for North America.
Despite what things looked like a few days ago when conditions seemed more promising, it just won’t happen tonight as hoped. Instead, a level G1, or minor occurrence is forecast.
Computer models that go out as far as 27 days estimated solar activity would reach our atmosphere with a much bigger geomagnetic impact.
As high as a kp index of 6 was originally possible. The shorter-range observations and modeling knocks that down to a kp index of 4.
A G1 to G2 geomagnetic storm of that level will produce minor to moderate radio issues. Other issues are not expected.
A look at the forecast from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks shows North America, especially Canada getting the best shot of seeing a glow on the horizon.
Meteorologist Aaron Myler did a story recently on why we will see more opportunities for the Northern Lights in Maine soon, this just won’t be one of them.
You can read the discussion about the forecast here:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-geomagnetic-forecast
- Jason
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