PORTLAND, Maine — Much like trying to get a teenager out of bed, there's a certain inertia to weather.
Sure, teleconnections like El Nino play a big role, but anecdotally it's more than that.
This winter has been rain unless otherwise noted.
We got a break Wednesday as the next cold front/coastal low combo approached. Depending on how long we can hold that front and how much we can break the cloud cover-up, it could be sneaky warm.
I like this look from the EURO. It holds the front up into the mountains through the early afternoon. If that can happen, we should be able to pop some 50s and maybe even a few 60s everywhere except the mountains and northern Maine. (This will be Gutner after those two to three hours of warmth and sun.)
The positive vibes don't last that long, however, as a coastal low approaches and links up with the front stalled over the mountains.
This will lead to rain overnight Wednesday through at least the first half of Thursday. That'll be another 1 to 2 inches of rain, especially along the coastline, which is nice because my yard is just too firm and inviting lately.
Unlike the last system, there will be SOME mixing to snow across northern Maine and perhaps the mountains by Thursday morning. But I don't have super high hopes for big accumulation as boundary layer temperatures are sketchy.
The rain (and northern snow) will move out on Thursday afternoon.
Friday and Saturday look pretty decent to me and then our next storm approaches for Sunday.
This is the only one that I have real hope for, concerning the mountains at least. It looks like we start as snow, and they may be able to hang on for a while. It's hard to give exact amounts right now, but I think the mountains could get 6 inches or more of snow Sunday into Monday morning.
Along the coast, this is likely another rain event. Probably another 1 to 2 inches. As a result, we will have to keep an eye on flooding concerns, which include the immediate coastline with a king tide expected Sunday.
So, in short, our "El Nino Winter That Wasn't" continues into March.
Keith
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