EA Sports' Madden NFL Super Bowl simulation is back and it's predicting a 30-27 Los Angeles Rams victory over the five-time champion New England Patriots.
Super Bowl LIII is EA Sports' 16th Super Bowl simulation. Since 2004, it is 10-5, accurately predicting the league champion two-thirds of the time. This is the first simulation involving the Rams and the Patriots' seventh.
In the first quarter, similar to the Patriots' actual last two playoff games, rookie RB Sony Michel finds the end zone with a 3-yard run. Patriots QB Tom Brady later connects with WR Julian Edelman for a touchdown in the second quarter.
Both kickers add three points before the half to make it 17-3.
In the third quarter, Rams QB Jared Goff gets hot and fires two touchdowns to wide receivers — Robert Woods for 46 yards and Josh Reynolds for 26 yards. In between, both teams exchange field goals. It's a 20-20 tie after three.
Rams K Greg Zuerlein nails a 53-yard field goal to start the fourth quarter. Brady regains steam by throwing his third touchdown of the game, a 9-yard pass to RB James White, putting the Patriots ahead 27-23. But the Rams get the ball when they need it most, scoring on a 5-yard run from RB Todd Gurley to seal it.
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Goff tops Brady for passing yards, 303-287, while the two match for touchdowns (two) and interceptions (one). Edelman and Woods both catch eight passes, one touchdown and eclipse 100 yards in receiving. Michel is the game's top rusher, surpassing the century-mark in yards and adding a score. Two-time All-Pro Gurley is silent, though his game-winning touchdown speaks for itself. Rams late-season addition C.J. Anderson adds 64 yards on 18 carries.
Perhaps the most surprising element of the Super Bowl simulation is it's MVP, Rams DT Aaron Donald, who finishes with a Super Bowl record four sacks.
If accurate, Donald's Pete Rozelle Trophy win would be the first for a defensive lineman since Chicago's Richard Dent in Super Bowl XX (1986 vs. New England). Multiple defensive players have won the award — most recently Broncos LB Von Miller and Seahawks LB Malcolm Smith in Super Bowls 50 and XLVIII, respectively — but it has only happened nine out of 53 times.
EA Sports is 5-2 in predicting Patriots' Super Bowl outcomes.
Correct predictions: New England victories for Super Bowls XXXVIII (2004 vs. Carolina), XXXIX (2005 vs. Philadelphia), XLIX (2015 vs. Seattle) and LI (2017 vs. Atlanta), and a loss for Super Bowl XLVI (2012 vs. the New York Giants).
Super Bowl XLIX's simulation of 28-24 turned out to be exact match.
Incorrectly predictions: a victory for New England in Super Bowl XLII (2008), which wasn't shocking since the Patriots went a perfect 16-0 that season. Also, a Patriots win in last year's Super Bowl LII (2018).
There has never been a Madden NFL simulation that went against New England and was then reversed in reality — EA Sports' lone prediction against the Patriots was affirmed in 2012 with a Giants victory in Super Bowl XLVI.
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Since 2013 for Super Bowl XLVII (Ravens vs. 49ers), Madden NFL predictions have alternated between being correct and incorrect: odd years right in 2013, 2015 and 2017; even years wrong in 2014, 2016 and 2018. That trend, if continued, would indicate an accurate prediction in 2019 and a Rams win.
Here's a recap of all Madden NFL predictions since 2004:
2018-19: Super Bowl LIII - Patriots vs. Rams
Madden: Rams, 30-27
Actual: ?
2017-18: Super Bowl LII - Eagles vs. Patriots
Madden: Patriots, 24-20
Actual: Eagles, 41-33 ❌
2016-17: Super Bowl LI - Patriots vs. Falcons
Madden: Patriots, 27-24
Actual: Patriots, 34-28 ✅
2015-16: Super Bowl 50 - Panthers vs. Broncos
Madden: Panthers, 24-20
Actual: Broncos, 24-10 ❌
2014-15: Super Bowl XLIX - Patriots vs. Seahawks
Madden: Patriots, 28-24
Actual: Patriots, 28-24 ✅
2013-14: Super Bowl XLVIII - Seahawks vs. Broncos
Madden: Broncos, 31-28
Actual: Seahawks, 43-8 ❌
2012-13: Super Bowl XLVII - Ravens vs. 49ers
Madden: Ravens, 27-24
Actual: Ravens, 34-31 ✅
2011-12: Super Bowl XLVI - Giants vs. Patriots
Madden: Giants, 27-24
Actual: Giants, 21-17 ✅
2010-11: Super Bowl XLV - Steelers vs. Packers
Madden: Steelers, 24-20
Actual: Packers, 31-25 ❌
2009-10: Super Bowl XLIV - Saints vs. Colts
Madden: Saints, 35-31
Actual: Saints, 31-17 ✅
2008-09: Super Bowl XLIII - Steelers vs. Cardinals
Madden: Steelers, 28-24
Actual: Steelers, 27-23 ✅
2007-08: Super Bowl XLII - Giants vs. Patriots
Madden: Patriots, 38-30
Actual: Giants, 17-14 ❌
2006-07: Super Bowl XLI - Colts vs. Bears
Madden: Colts, 38-27
Actual: Colts, 29-17 ✅
2005-06: Super Bowl XL - Seahawks vs. Steelers
Madden: Steelers, 24-19
Actual: Steelers, 21-10 ✅
2004-05: Super Bowl XXXIX - Patriots vs. Eagles
Madden: Patriots, 47-31
Actual: Patriots, 24-21 ✅
2003-04: Super Bowl XXXVIII - Panthers vs. Patriots
Madden: Patriots, 23-20
Actual: Patriots, 32-29 ✅