PORTLAND, Maine — It was another busy week in politics. From predictions about this week's primaries to a U.S. Senate vote on contraception and President Joe Biden's executive order on the southern border, our analysts share their takes.
Tuesday primaries
Tuesday is Election Day. There is plenty for folks to weigh in on to narrow down the candidates for November. All eyes will be on the 1st and 2nd Congressional District seats and the Republican primaries. The question will be if Trump-endorsed Austin Theriault can make it across the finish line in the race against Michael Soboleski.
ZACH: "Now, is this a given for Theriault? And isn't this division he's talking about largely fueled by Trump?"
GARRETT: "I don't, I don't think it's a given. I still very much remain on the side of that this is anybody's race. The polling has been inconsistent, if available at all. It's been a long time since I think a real poll has come out that's shown what's going to happen in this race. I also think that just with the nature of it being a Republican, being a presidential year, rather, I think there's a lot of people that have thought that the primary has already gone by. You know, we already had one. I wonder about voter turnout. And then you have the added factor that independents can vote. We have an open primary system now. I think there's a lot of factors that we just aren't going to know until after Election Day. I do, I kind of and refraining from picking a winner on this one. But I mean, listen, the Trump endorsement for Theriault is huge. I mean, it's especially in Republican circles I'm not so much sure about Democrat circles, but like, you know, the Trump endorsement or a LePage endorsement, take it from somebody who knows. You know, that means a lot in Republican circles. But I wouldn't say that it's a given. It's definitely a big leg up, though."
ZACH: "Yeah. You mentioned independents. Of course, that would play a role in independents who might want to vote for you if they're the independents that wouldn't support voting for Trump again, right?"
BJ: "Right. And I mean, I think that David's absolutely right in the sense that the Trump endorsement is a huge win for the Theriault campaign. And I've heard Garrett talk a lot about their concern about turnout. And I think that's probably true. It's a first challenge for Austin to prove if he can drive turnout to come over the finish line. But I'm also just taken aback by that because this is one of the most competitive congressional seats in the country. And I think that a party has a responsibility to drive turnout in a primary. If you're picking the candidate that is going to be playing for your side in one most competitive races in the country."
ZACH: "There's definitely plenty of money at play. Garrett, what else will you be watching on Tuesday?"
GARRETT: "You know, I'll be interested to see. You know, the county is obviously going to go really heavy for Austin Theriault. I would imagine. I think it'll be important for Mike Soboleski to drive a lot of turnout, not only in his areas, but I think the big prize in this race is going to be Lewiston-Auburn. You know, how is Androscoggin County going to come out? Like, where are they going to? You know, where are they going to go? Both men have been there, but, you know, there's not really running anybody running from there. That's Jared Golden's center of report. You know, in 2020, Dale Crafts ran in that in that area and did well. So, you know, I think that's a prize that normally somebody has locked up, but nobody does in this race."
BJ: "I think that we've got some fascinating legislative primaries that are happening around the state. We've got multiple incumbents being challenged by challengers. Some of those races, there's outside spending that's happening. And it'll be interesting to see how that impacts everything. And, you know, legislative primaries is a little bit different than a congressional primary in the sense that it truly is like your neighbors running against each other. And so it will just be fascinating to see how those play out."
Collins' contraception vote
This week, a bill aimed at protecting access to contraception fell short of passing in the Senate. The Right to Contraception Act was blocked by Senate Republicans with only Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, voting with Democrats in support of the legislation.
ZACH: "Republicans are accusing Democrats of playing politics here. Is that fair?"
BJ: "Absolutely not. Look, this is so clear that reproductive rights are on the ballot in November. And the fact that Republicans didn't even want to bring this to a vote shows that they were afraid to say where they stood. It's not the Democrats that are playing politics here. Democrats are trying to protect reproductive rights. Republicans won't even say where they stand on the issue by blocking the vote on a procedural measure."
GARRETT: "Well, I think I can look to state-level politics where I know that State Sen. Eric Brakey has brought contraceptive bills to lower the prices or even provide them for health insurance companies. And Democrats have lambasted him and others that have tried that as being a political measure. It's six of one, half-dozen of the other Democrats are saying it's politics. This time Republicans will say it's politics next time. I mean, on the vote itself, Sen. Collins has done what she always does. And that's try to lead from the middle. And, you know, that's something that she always does. I think Mainers should be proud to have her there and speaking her mind. But I don't think that this is a I don't think it's a political issue on part of Republicans. I think it's a political issue on part of Democrats that because they have very little to talk about in this election and contraceptives and abortion is one of them. So why wouldn't."
BJ: "They want to bring that up for a vote? I think that that's what gets me. It's like, you know, if you don't think this is a political issue if you don't think it's something to be afraid of, why not go on the record about where you stand on the issue?
GARRETT: Well, I think they did with that vote. You know, the procedural measures are votes in and of themselves, and they did do that. So, you know, I think I think that is something that that can be looked at. They did they did voice their measure. They didn't want the bill to advance, and so they stopped it."
Biden border
The Biden Administration taking action on the border. President Joe Biden signed an executive order that essentially shuts down asylum requests once the average number of daily encounters at ports of entry goes above 2500 a threshold. White House officials say has already been met. Official border crossings will open back up when that number drops to 1500 encounters a day.
ZACH: "Garrett, obviously, a big issue come November, was this the president's motivation here?"
GARRETT: "I am wondering if you guys have gotten any inquiries to get tape from this show because I think the president has been listening to what I've been saying for two months. You know, the president, as I have said and other Republican analysts have said, this could have been done three years ago. The president didn't want to do it. Now, that being said, let's talk about what he didn't do in this executive order. Joe Biden could have come into office and taken the win from Donald Trump. He could have sat there and just let the current situation play out, but he didn't. He repealed stay in Mexico. He repealed that. He did not put that back in place in this policy, which was the huge winner. And why the president, President Trump, was so successful in bringing border crossings down. There was three other items that he did not put back into place that he originally repealed when he came into office. So, I mean, it's a half measure. I don't even know if I want to call it a half-measure. It's probably like, you know, a 12th measure in what he really needs to do. The president never needed congressional action. He needed to not repeal what Donald Trump did. And this is becoming a huge issue in the election. I mean, listen, I've been talking about it on this show forever. Border security is a huge issue no matter where you are. It's showing in the polling and the Biden Administration tipped their hands and know that it's an issue."
BJ: "Well, I agree with Garrett. I think we should go back and look at the tape about four months ago when congressional Republicans, at the order of Donald Trump blocked the border bill. And we said at that time, this is so Donald Trump can try to use this as a political issue. And now here the president is signing an executive order exactly what was called for four months ago. And Donald Trump is blasting him for that executive order. It's so clear that this is politics at its worst. I mean, we talk about politics being played with reproductive rights. Look at this. I mean, votes are being blocked by the Republican nominee for president so that he can leverage it on the campaign trail. And it's gross."
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